How To Make Sense Out Of Science
David H. Levy
1 New Drugs Kill Cancer
如何理解科學
大衛?H?利維
新藥滅癌
2 Devastation by El Ni?o — a Warning
厄爾?尼諾現象將帶來毀滅 —— 壹則警告
3 6:30 p.m. October 26, 2028: Could This Be the Deadline for the Apocalypse?
2028年10月26日下午6:30：世界末日的最後期限？
4 When these headlines appeared this year, their stories became the subjects of conversations around the world — talks spiced with optimism and confusion. Imagine the hopes raised in the millions battling cancer. Did the news mean these people never had to worry about cancer again? Or that we all had to worry about a catastrophe from outer space or, more immediately, from El Ni?o?
這些標題於今年見諸報端時，這類新聞便成為全世界的話題 —— 既摻有樂觀又帶來混亂的話題。想象壹下這些新聞為成千上萬與癌癥抗爭的人們所帶來的希望。這些新聞是否意味著這些人再也不用為癌癥擔憂呢？還是說我們所有的人都得為來自外層空間的大禍，或者更近壹點，為厄爾?尼諾現象造成的災難而憂心忡忡呢？。
5 Unfortunately, science doesn't work that way. It rarely arrives at final answers. People battling cancer or victims of El Ni?o may find this frustrating, but the truth is that Nature does not yield her secrets easily. Science is done step by step. First an idea is formed. Then this is tested by an experiment. The outcome, one hopes, results in an increase in knowledge. 不幸的是，科學並非這般運作。科學極少提供最終的答案。與癌癥搏鬥的人們或厄爾?尼諾現象的受害者也許會覺得這太令人沮喪，但事實是，大自然並不輕易袒露其奧秘。科學研究是壹步壹步進行的，首先要有壹個構想，然後用實驗檢驗這個構想，人們希望其結果能成為知識的壹種積累。
6 Science is not a set of unquestionable results but a way of understanding the world around us. Its real work is slow. (1) The scientific method, as many of us learned in school, is a gradual process that begins with a purpose or a problem or question to be answered. It includes a list of materials, a procedure to follow, a set of observations to make and, finally, conclusions to reach. In medicine, when a new drug is proposed that might cure or control a disease, it is first tested on a large random group of people, and their reactions are then compared with those of another random group not given the drug. All reactions in both groups are carefully recorded and compared, and the drug is evaluated. All of this takes time — and patience.
科學並非壹組無可置疑的結果，而是認識我們周圍世界的壹種方法。其實際進程是緩慢的。(1) 正如我們很多人在學校裏所學的那樣，科學方法是壹個漸進的過程，這個過程始於某個目的，或某個有待解決或回答的問題。這包括壹組材料，壹套必須遵循的操作步驟，壹系列有待進行的觀察，最後是有待得出的結論。醫學上，有人提出壹種新藥可能醫治或控制某種疾病時，先是在隨意挑選的大量人群中進行試驗，然後將這部分人群的用藥反應與另壹組隨意挑選的未用此藥的人群的情況進行比較。兩組人群的種種反應被壹壹記錄，仔細比較，從而對新藥的療效作出鑒定。所有這些過程需要時間 —— 以及耐心。
7 It's the result of course, that makes the best news — not the years of quiet work that characterize the bulk of scientific inquiry. After an experiment is concluded or an observation is made, the result continues to be examined critically. When it is submitted for publication, it goes to a group of the scientist's colleagues, who review the work. If the work is important enough, just before the report is published in a professional journal or read at a conference, a press release is issued and an announcement is made to the world.
成為新聞熱點的當然是結果，而非長年默默無聞的努力，而長年默默無聞的努力正是絕大多數科學探索的特點。在實驗有了結論，或觀察結束之後，其結果仍將受到嚴格的檢測。結果送交發表時，會由壹組科學家的同行審閱。如果成果相當重要，那在專業雜誌上發表或會議上宣讀該實驗報告之前，將會舉行新聞發布會，向世人宣布。
8 The world may think that the announcement signifies the end of the process, but it doesn't. A publication is really a challenge: "Here is my result. Prove me wrong!" (2) Other researchers will try to repeat the experiment, and the more often it works, the better the chances that the result is sound. Einstein was right when he said: "No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can at any time prove me wrong."
世人也許會認為宣布結果標誌整個過程的結束，其實不然。發表成果實際上是種挑戰：“本人所作結論在此。請證其謬！”(2) 別的研究人員會試圖重復這壹實驗，實驗成功的次數越多，其結果就越有可能是可靠的。愛因斯坦說得對：“再多的實驗也永遠不能證明我正確，而壹項實驗隨時就能證明我錯誤。”
9 In August 1996, NASA announced the discovery in Antarctica of a meteorite from Mars that might contain evidence of ancient life on another world. (3)As President Clinton said that day, the possibility that life existed on Mars billions of years ago was potentially one of the great discoveries of our time.
1996年8月，美國國家航天和航空局宣布在南極洲發現了壹顆來自火星的隕石，其中可能包含著其他星球存在古老生命的證據。(3) 正如克林頓總統那天所說，發現億萬年前火星上可能存在生命這件事, 有可能是我們時代最偉大的發現之壹。
10 After the excitement wore down and initial papers were published, other researchers began looking at samples from the same meteorite. (4) Some concluded that the "evidence of life" was mostly contamination from Antarctic ice or that there was nothing organic at all in the rock.
當興奮和激動慢慢平息，首批論文發表之後，其他研究人員開始研究取自同壹顆隕石的樣本。(4) 有些人得出結論說，這些“生命的證據”大多來自南極冰的汙染，或者說那塊石頭裏根本就沒有有機物。
Ben Carson: Man of Miracles
Christopher Phillips
1 Ben Carson looked out at Detroit's Southwestern High School class of 1988. It was graduation day. At 36, Carson was a leading brain surgeon, performing delicate and lifesaving operations. But 19 years before, he had graduated from this same inner-city school. He remembered it all — the depressing surroundings of one of Detroit's toughest, poorest neighborhoods. And he knew the sense of hopelessness and despair that many of these 260 students were feeling about the future.
本?卡森：壹個創造奇跡的人
克裏斯托弗?菲利普斯
本?卡森望著底特律市西南高中1988屆的畢業班學生。那天是畢業典禮日。卡森36歲，是壹位傑出的腦外科醫生，施行需要小心處理的挽救生命的手術。然而，19年前，他就畢業於這同壹所市中心貧民區的學校。他壹切記憶猶新 —— 記得這是底特律市壹個最貧窮的也是暴力犯罪最嚴重的街坊，記得那種壓抑的環境。他知道這260名學生當中的許多人對未來有壹種絕望感。
2 (1) For weeks he had worried over how to convince the graduates that they, too, could succeed against seemingly impossible odds, that they could move mountains. Now, standing to deliver the main address, he held up his hands. "See these?"he asked the students. "I didn't always use them for surgery. When I was a little younger than you are, I often waved a knife with them to threaten people. And I even tried to kill somebody."
(1) 幾個星期以來，他壹直苦苦思索，如何才能讓這些畢業生相信，他們也能克服似乎難以戰勝的困難獲取成功，他們也能創造奇跡。此刻，他正起身作貴賓演講，他舉起了雙手。“看到嗎？”他問學生，“我過去並非總是用我的手作外科手術。在我比妳們還年輕壹點的時候，常常兩手揮舞小刀恐嚇別人。我甚至曾經試圖殺人。”
3 The students stared in disbelief.
學生們難以置信地瞪大了眼睛。
4 Ben and his older brother, Curtis, grew up in a crowded apartment building near the school. Their mother, Sonya, who had married at age 13 and divorced when Ben was eight, worked at two and sometimes three low-paying jobs at a time. She wanted a better life for her two sons and showered them with encouragement. However, both boys started badly in school, especially Ben.
本和哥哥柯蒂斯就在這所學校附近壹幢擁擠的公寓大樓裏長大。母親索妮婭13歲結婚，在本8歲時離了婚。她同時幹兩份，有時甚至三份低報酬的活兒。她想讓兩個兒子過上好日子，拼命地鼓勵他倆。但兩個孩子剛上學時都學得壹團糟，尤其是本。
5 Sonya recognized that Ben was bright. He just didn't seem motivated. "From now on,"she announced one afternoon, "you can watch only two TV shows a week. You have to read at least two books every week and give me reports so I know you really read them." 索妮婭知道本很聰明。他只不過是缺乏動力。“從現在開始，”有天下午她說道，“妳們壹星期只能看兩次電視。每星期妳們至少得讀兩本書，要給我寫讀書報告，我好知道妳們真的是讀了。”
6 At first Ben hated reading. Then, gradually, he discovered a new world of possibility. (2) Before long he was reading more books than his determined mother required, and he couldn't wait to share them with her.
起初，本痛恨讀書。後來，漸漸地，他發現了壹個充滿機會的嶄新世界。(2) 沒多久，他的閱讀便超出了意誌堅定的母親所規定的數目，他迫不及待地與母親分享閱讀的快樂。
7 His mother studied the book reports closely. "That's a fine job, Bennie," she would tell her beaming son. What she didn't tell Ben or Curtis was that, with only a third-grade education, she couldn't read.
母親認真審閱讀書報告。“寫得不錯，本尼，”她會對滿面笑容的兒子說。她沒有告訴本或柯蒂斯的是，她只上過三年學，根本不會讀書。
8 "Mom," Ben announced one day, "When I grow up, I want to be a doctor."
“媽媽，”壹天本說道，“等我長大了，我要當醫生。”
9 Sonya Carson smiled, knowing Ben must have just read a book on doctors. "You can be anything you want to be," she assured him.
索妮婭?卡森微微壹笑，知道本準是剛讀了壹本有關醫生的書。“心想事成，” 她深信不疑地對他說。
10 With a goal now, young Ben soared from the bottom of his class toward the top. His teachers were astonished. There was one thing, however, that Ben couldn't seem to conquer: his violent temper. (3) He boiled with anger — anger at his departed father, anger at the hardships his mother faced, anger at all the wasted lives he saw around him.
有了目標，年輕的本的功課從全班最差躍升至榜首。他的老師都非常驚訝。但是有壹件事，本似乎不能克服，那就是他的火爆脾氣。(3) 他滿腔憤怒 —— 對死去的父親憤怒，對母親承受的艱辛憤怒，對自己所目睹的身邊所有荒廢的人生憤怒。
11 Then one afternoon, walking home from school, 14-year-old Ben started arguing with a friend. Pulling a camping knife, Ben thrust at the boy. The steel blade struck the youngster's metal belt buckle, and the blade snapped. Ben's friend fled.
壹天下午，在放學回家的路上，14歲的本跟壹個朋友爭了起來。本拔出壹把野營用小刀朝那個男孩捅去。鋼制刀身紮在男孩的金屬帶扣上喀嚓壹聲折斷了。本的朋友逃走了。
12 Ben stood stone-still. "I almost killed someone!" he said quietly. There and then he made a decision. If he was ever going to fulfill his dream of becoming a doctor and save others, he was first going to have to cure himself. Never again would he let his anger run away with him.
本站在那兒，呆住了。“我差點兒殺了人！”他默默地說。他當機立斷。如果真的還想要實現自己的醫生夢，救死扶傷，他首先必須醫治好自己的惡習。他決不再讓自己的脾氣失控。
13 In 1969 Ben graduated third in his class from Southwestern High and received a full scholarship to Yale. After Yale he obtained grants to study at the University of Michigan Medical School. This was the start of a career that was to lead him, at age 33, to be appointed senior brain surgeon at Johns Hopkins hospital. From around the world, other surgeons came to seek his counsel.
1969年，本以全班第三名的成績從西南高中畢業，並獲得耶魯大學全額獎學金。耶魯本科畢業後，他獲得獎學金去密歇根大學醫學院學習。這是他職業生涯的起點，並使他在33歲時便被任命為約翰斯?霍普金斯醫院高級腦外科醫師。來自世界各地的外科醫生都來向他咨詢。
14 In April 1987 a German doctor arrived with the records of Siamese twins, newborns Patrick and Benjamin Binder. The boys had separate brains, but at the back of the heads, where they were joined, they shared blood vessels. Their mother refused to sacrifice either child to save the other. Surgeons knew of no other way to proceed. In many cases, when Siamese twins are separated at the back of the head, one child survives and the other either dies or suffers severe mental injury.
1987年4月，壹位德國醫生帶著連體雙胎、新生嬰兒帕特裏克和本傑明?拜恩德的病歷前來找本。兩個男嬰有各自的大腦，但在連接兩人的後腦部，兩人***用血管。孿生嬰兒的母親拒絕犧牲壹個孩子挽救另壹個孩子。醫生們束手無策。在許多病例中，連體雙胎在後腦部分割時，壹個孩子存活，另壹個則無法存活，或者將遭受嚴重腦力損傷。
15 Carson came up with a plan to give both twins the best chance of survival: stop their hearts, drain their blood supply completely and restore circulation only after the two were safely separated.
卡森提出了壹個使兩個孩子都有最佳存活機會的方案：停止兩人心臟搏動，完全停止供血，直到兩人被安全分離後再恢復血液循環。
16 The entire operation took 22 hours and required a 70-person team. After the twins' hearts were stopped and their blood drained, Carson had only one hour to separate the damaged blood vessels. He worked smoothly and quickly, easing his instruments deep into the brains of the two infants. Twenty minutes after stopping the twins' circulation, he made the final cut. Now, working with his team, he had 40 minutes to reconstruct the blood vessels that had been cut open and close Patrick's head. Another team would do the same for Benjamin.
整個手術花了22小時，投入了壹個70人的醫療組。停止了兩個嬰兒的心臟搏動和供血後，卡森只有壹個小時的時間來分離業已損傷的血管。他嫻熟快速地施行手術，將各種手術器械輕輕地切入兩個嬰兒的大腦深處。供血停止後二十分鐘，他動了最後壹刀。隨後，他與醫療組合作，將用四十分鐘時間重建被切開的血管，縫合帕特裏克的頭。另壹組醫務人員將對本傑明施行同樣的手術。
17 Just within the hour limit, the babies were fully separated, and the operating tables were wheeled apart.
就在壹小時時限將到之時，兩個孩子被完全分離，兩張手術臺被分別推開。
18 Tired but happy, Dr. Carson went out to the waiting room. "Which one of your children would you like to see first?" he asked their mother.
疲倦不堪卻又滿心歡喜的卡森醫生來到等候室。“妳想先看哪個孩子呢？”他問孩子的母親。
19 The students of Detroit's Southwestern High sat silently as Ben Carson described his life's journey from an angry street fighter to an internationally distinguished brain surgeon. "It's important that you know there are many ways to go," Dr. Carson told them. "Becoming a brain surgeon is perfectly possible. But you don't have to be a surgeon. There are opportunities everywhere. You just have to be willing to take advantage of them. (4) Think big! Nobody was born to be a failure. If you feel you're going to succeed — and work your tail off — you will succeed!"
底特律市西南高中的學生們靜坐著，聽本?卡森講述自己從壹個憤怒的街頭打手成長為國際知名的腦外科醫生的人生旅程。“重要的是要明白人生的道路多種多樣，”卡森醫生告誡他們道。“成為壹位腦外科醫生是完全可能的。但妳並不壹定要當外科醫生。機會無處不在。但妳得要肯去利用。(4) 要有雄心壯誌！沒有人生來就是失敗者。如果妳覺得自己會成功 —— 於是發奮努力 —— 妳就會成功！”
20 Pausing, Ben Carson turned to his mother who was sitting in the front row.
本?卡森停頓片刻，朝坐在前排的母親望去。
21 "I'd like to thank my mother," Carson said in closing, "for all the success I've had."
“我要為我取得的所有成功感謝我的母親，”卡森最後說。
22 Southwestern High's entire graduating class stood and clapped for a solid five minutes. Tears welled in Ben Carson's eyes.
西南高中畢業班學生全體起立，鼓掌足足持續了五分鐘。淚水從本?卡森的雙眸湧出。
23 Afterward, Sonya Carson embraced her son fondly. "It's really true, Bennie," she said. "You can be anything you want to be. And you've done it!"
後來，索妮婭?卡森深情地摟住兒子。“真的沒錯，本尼，”她說。“心想事成。妳已經做成了！”
11 Was this a failure of science, as some news reports trumpeted?
這是某些新聞報道所鼓噪的科學的失敗嗎？
12 No! It was a good example of the scientific method working the way it is supposed to. Scientists spend years on research, announce their findings, and these findings are examined by other scientists. That's how we learn. Like climbing a mountain, we struggle up three feet and fall back two. It's a process filled with disappointments and reverses, but somehow we keep moving ahead.
不！這正是科學研究以其應有的方式進行的壹個範例。科學家經過多年研究發布成果，其成果再由其他科學家加以檢驗。我們就是這樣增進知識的。正如爬山，我們費力爬上三英尺，又掉下去兩英尺。這是個充滿失望與挫折的過程，但不管怎樣，我們壹直往前邁進。